Black Sea field intelligence · Giresun origin

The nut the chocolate world watches — read before the price moves.

Turkey grows roughly two-thirds of the world's hazelnuts, and a single April frost can reset the entire confectionery cost base. Fındık Observatory turns orchard reality on the Black Sea coast into the signal importers, roasters and traders actually need.

$4.93

Giresun TMO · USD/kg

601k t

2025/26 crop est.

−22%

YoY output (frost)

~66%

Global supply share

Reference price illustrative · 12-mo

4.93USD/kg

▲ +51.5% YoY

Frost Watch Giresun · Ordu orchards

Dormant · low risk

Bud-break vulnerability window (mid-Mar → late Apr) has closed for 2026. Orchards are in fruit development. Next active watch opens ~Mar 2027.

● safe● watch● frost alert

Crop & supply outlook 2025/26 · 2026/27

2025/26 production (in-shell)601k t −22% YoY

Frost loss (April event)~167k t

Carry-in stocks~exhausted

H1 export volume143k t ≈ $1.2B

2026/27 bud setdeveloping

Global market size$13.1B ’26

Export destinations share of TR volume

Germany / EU63%

Italy21%

France8%

Other8%

Europe absorbs the large majority of Turkish imports — Ferrero alone takes roughly a quarter of global output, which is why a Black Sea frost is a Brussels and Frankfurt cost story.

Crop calendar & frost-risk window phenology

Flowering / pollination

catkins · Jan–Mar

Bud break — frost-vulnerable

Mar–Apr ⚠

Fruit set & development

May–Jul

Harvest

mid-Aug–Sep

Drying · TMO price & trade

Aug–Oct

Intelligence feed analyst notes

06 Aug 2025

bullish

TMO sets Giresun floor at ₺200/kg — a decade high

State board lifts the support price ~51% YoY after frost losses. A hard floor under farmgate prices tightens negotiating room for buyers locked into European contracts.

Apr 2025

supply shock

April frost wipes high-altitude buds across Ordu & Samsun

Worst cold event since 2014. Output revised from ~750k to ~601k tonnes, ~167k lost. Carry-in stock that cushioned past shocks is now gone.

2025

structural

Buyers accelerate sourcing diversification

Chile, the US (Oregon, mechanised) and Romania expand as origins. Ferrero deepens vertical integration and funds frost-resistant varietal R&D — a slow hedge against Black Sea concentration.

The Observatory Briefing · weekly

The orchard-to-contract read, every Monday before the market opens.

Field-level frost and yield signal, TMO and free-market price moves, export-flow shifts, and what it means for your next purchase window — written from the Black Sea, in English, for people who actually buy hazelnuts.

Weekly price & basis read (Giresun · Levant · Ordu)
Frost & yield watch through the vulnerable window
Buy-timing call: hedge now, wait, or layer in